MO-06 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Republican victory in Missouri's 6th congressional district at 94.5%, making it strongly favored to remain in GOP hands. The contract will settle once the 2026 midterms are conclusively called.
Will the Republican Party win the MO-06 House seat?
Updated · Volume $46.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the MO-06 House seat? | 94.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MO-06 House seat? | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the MO-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the MO-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the MO-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the MO-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the MO-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the MO-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican win is strongly favored while all other scenarios, including a Democrat pickup, are unlikely.
Context
The probability of a Republican hold has fluctuated over the observed period. It moved 0.0 pts in the last day and, sitting at 94.5% as of 6 min ago. This market resolves on the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 U.S. House seat on Nov 3, 2026. A candidate’s party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation; if none is listed, it defaults to the party with which they most recently declared an intent to caucus when the race is called. Resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission's official results as a fallback. The resolution date, Nov 3, 2026, is a fixed point on the horizon, so sentiment can shift with any development that alters the electoral outlook—candidate entries, fundraising reports, or national political currents. The final call rests on credible election reporting, underpinned by FEC data.
FAQ
How does this market decide a winner?
It resolves once a consensus of credible news outlets confirms which party's candidate won the MO-06 House seat, with the Federal Election Commission's official results used if needed.
What if a candidate runs as an independent?
Their party affiliation is based on their ballot listing; if no party is listed, it’s determined by which party they most recently said they’d caucus with when the election is called.
When will the market resolve?
After the 2026 midterm elections are conclusively called, which typically follows the Nov 3, 2026 vote but may take days or weeks if the race is close.
Does this market consider recounts or legal challenges?
The market resolves based on credible reporting and official results from the FEC, so extended disputes could delay resolution until a final outcome is clear.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice