Aug 2, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 83.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Montana Senate Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give the Republicans a 91.0% chance of holding Montana's U.S. Senate seat in the 2026 midterms, a probability that puts the outcome in strongly favored territory. An independent win is rated as unlikely, with all other possibilities barely registering.
91.0%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
Updated · Volume $118.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? | 91.0% | 0.0 |
| Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026? | 7.6% | +0.1 |
| Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026? | 0.9% | -0.0 |
| Will a candidate not listed above win the Montana Senate race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Republicans are strongly favored to hold the seat. An independent win is seen as unlikely, and every other possible outcome is considered a long shot.
Context
Aug 1, 2026
Probability rose from 79.0% to 81.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability fell from 87.0% to 73.5% — a 13.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability fell from 87.0% to 78.0% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
The Republican win probability now sits at 91.0%, strongly favored. This market resolves according to the winner of the 2026 Montana U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. The resolution source is a consensus of the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. Once all three call the race for the same candidate, the market settles. If the three outlets do not converge, resolution falls back to the official certification. The probability can move in response to any development that makes a Republican win more or less likely in the judgment of the three news organizations that serve as the resolution source. The election itself is scheduled for Nov 3, 2026.
FAQ
How is the winner determined in this market?
The market resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If they disagree, the market uses the official certification.
What counts as a Republican or independent winner?
The Republican option covers only the official Republican nominee. Independent candidates are those who are not the Democratic or Republican nominee, regardless of any past party affiliation.
What if no candidate gets a majority and there is a run-off?
The market includes any run-off election; the eventual winner of the run-off is the winner for resolution purposes.
Are there other candidates listed?
Beyond the Republican and independent categories, the market lists several other outcomes, but they are all priced as extreme long shots and do not factor significantly into the odds.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice