MS-02 House Election Winner: Odds and Probability
Markets peg the Democratic Party at 93.5% to retain the MS-02 seat, making the incumbent party strongly favored. The midterm election takes place on November 3, 2026.
Will the Democratic Party win the MS-02 House seat?
Updated · Volume $38.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the MS-02 House seat? | 93.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the MS-02 House seat? | 7.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the MS-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the MS-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the MS-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the MS-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the MS-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the MS-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic Party is strongly favored to win; all other outcomes are improbable.
Context
The probability of a Democratic win stands at 93.5%. Trading volume has reached $38.9K. The market resolves after the November 3, 2026 election based on the party of the winning candidate. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or—if none—the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. In case of ambiguity, the market uses the official Federal Election Commission results. The contract resolves on the outcome of the November 3, 2026 election. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if ambiguous. No other dates or deadlines are specified in the contract terms.
FAQ
How is the winner's party determined?
A candidate's party is based on their ballot-listed affiliation. If no party is listed, it is determined by the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves after the 2026 midterm elections, once the result for Mississippi's 2nd district is conclusively called by consensus reporting.
What if the result is contested?
If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based on the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission.
Does the market consider independent candidates?
Yes. Any candidate not affiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties on the ballot is classified based on their most recent caucus intent, as per the market rules.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice