Aug 13, 2026
Probability fell from 95.5% to 94.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
MS-03 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price a Republican win in Mississippi's 3rd congressional district at 97.0%, with the election set for Nov 3, 2026.
97.0%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Republican Party win the MS-03 House seat?
Updated · Volume $62.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the MS-03 House seat? | 97.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MS-03 House seat? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the MS-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the MS-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the MS-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the MS-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the MS-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the MS-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican candidate is near-certain to hold the seat; all other scenarios, including a Democratic pickup, are rated as long shots.
Context
Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 93.5% to 96.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
The probability has traded in a narrow range, currently at 97.0%. Data last updated 16 min ago. This market resolves to the party of the winning candidate in MS-03 as determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by the official FEC results if the outcome is unclear. A candidate's party is based on ballot designation or most recent intent to caucus. The election is scheduled for Nov 3, 2026. The market will settle once a winner is called by news organizations or certified by the FEC.
FAQ
How does this market determine the winner?
It resolves based on the party of the candidate who wins Mississippi's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House election. The winning party is identified either through consensus credible reporting or, if contested, via official FEC results.
What if a candidate's party affiliation isn’t clear?
The market uses the ballot-listed party. If no party is listed, it looks to the party with which the candidate most recently expressed intent to caucus.
When does the market finalize?
After the November 3, 2026 election, once the race is conclusively called by authoritative sources or the FEC certifies the result.
What counts as “consensus of credible reporting”?
It means multiple reputable news organizations have independently called the race for the same candidate.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice