Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 93.8% to 96.8% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
MS-04 House Election: Live Market Probability
Markets price a Republican hold in MS-04 at 96.7% — near-certain. The election is set for Nov 3, 2026.
96.7%-0.1 pts 24h
Will the Republican Party win the MS-04 House seat?
Updated · Volume $40.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the MS-04 House seat? | 96.7% | -0.1 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MS-04 House seat? | 3.0% | -0.1 |
| Will A win the MS-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the MS-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the MS-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the MS-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the MS-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the MS-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican hold is the clear favorite; the other seven possible outcomes are treated as remote tail risks.
Context
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 93.5% to 96.0% — a 2.6-point move over the past day.
As of 6 min ago, it stands at 96.7%. The market resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins Mississippi's 4th congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House elections. A candidate's party is defined by their ballot-listed affiliation—or, if none, the party they most recently said they would caucus with—at the time the race is conclusively called. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting; if there is disagreement, the official results from the Federal Election Commission decide the matter. The election takes place on Nov 3, 2026. Resolution follows a conclusive call, so any delay in certification or dispute over a candidate's party identification could prolong uncertainty. The primary event that will settle the contract is the official vote count and subsequent calling of the winner.
FAQ
How does the market define a candidate's party?
It uses the party listed on the ballot at the time the election is called. If no party is listed, it uses the party the candidate most recently indicated they would caucus with.
What triggers the market's resolution?
Resolution occurs once a consensus of credible news outlets declares a winner. If there is no consensus, the market resolves based on the official results published by the Federal Election Commission.
What is the role of the Federal Election Commission?
The FEC's official results serve as a fallback. If credible reporting is ambiguous or inconsistent, the market relies on the FEC's certification to determine the winner.
When is the expected resolution date?
The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026. The market resolves after that date, once a winner is confirmed by the agreed sources.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice