MT-02 House Election Winner: Market Odds
Markets currently price a Republican win in Montana's second congressional district at 94.5%. The seat will be contested in the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
Will the Republican Party win the MT-02 House seat?
Updated · Volume $45.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the MT-02 House seat? | 94.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MT-02 House seat? | 5.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the MT-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the MT-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the MT-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the MT-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the MT-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the MT-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
A Republican win is strongly favored; all other scenarios are unlikely.
Context
The contract for a Republican victory trades at 94.5%. Over the last day, the price has moved by 0.0 pts. The market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 seat in the 2026 midterms. A candidate's party is determined by ballot-listed affiliation; if no party appears on the ballot, the relevant party is the one with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting. Should ambiguity arise, the market defers to official results from the Federal Election Commission. The election date is November 3, 2026 (Nov 4, 2026). No other scheduled milestones are specified, so the resolution date stands as the primary deadline. The result hinges on the election outcome as confirmed by credible reports and the FEC.
FAQ
What election does this market cover?
It covers the winner of the U.S. House seat for Montana's 2nd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How is a candidate's party determined?
The market looks at the candidate's ballot-listed party affiliation. If no party is listed, it uses the party with which the candidate most recently stated an intent to caucus.
How does the market resolve if the results are contested?
Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If that consensus is unclear, the market uses official results from the Federal Election Commission.
When will this market be settled?
It will settle after the 2026 House elections are conclusively called, which is expected to happen shortly after November 3, 2026.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice