NC-05 House Election Winner: Market Odds
Markets price the Republican Party’s odds of winning the NC-05 House seat at 87.0% — strongly favored. The election will be held on November 3, 2026.
Will the Republican Party win the NC-05 House seat?
Updated · Volume $37.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the NC-05 House seat? | 87.0% | +0.5 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NC-05 House seat? | 12.3% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the NC-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the NC-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the NC-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the NC-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the NC-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the NC-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican candidate is the clear favorite to win, with the Democratic candidate seen as unlikely; all other scenarios are long shots.
Context
The current price stands at 87.0%. In the past 24 hours, the price changed by +0.5 pts. The market resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-05 seat in the 2026 midterm elections, held on November 3, 2026. A candidate’s party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation; if no affiliation is listed, it is based on the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. Settlement relies on a consensus of credible reporting, or on official results from the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity. The contract’s price will react to any information that changes expectations for the election outcome. The key date is November 3, 2026, when voters go to the polls. Once a winner is clear, the market will settle based on credible reporting or, if needed, official FEC data.
FAQ
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves after the winner of the NC-05 congressional district seat is determined in the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
How is the winning party determined?
The party is based on the candidate's ballot-listed affiliation. If none is listed, it is based on the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus.
What if the election results are disputed?
If there is ambiguity, the market settles based on official results from the Federal Election Commission.
What is the resolution source?
A consensus of credible reporting is used; if that is not clear, the FEC's official results are the final arbiter.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice