Aug 26, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 96.6% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
NC-12 House Election Winner: Live Probability
Markets price the Democratic Party’s odds of holding the NC-12 House seat at 96.5%, making it near-certain to remain in Democratic hands. The election will be decided on Nov 4, 2026.
96.5%-0.1 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-12 House seat?
Updated · Volume $66.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the NC-12 House seat? | 96.5% | -0.1 |
| Will the Republican Party win the NC-12 House seat? | 2.0% | -0.3 |
| Will A win the NC-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the NC-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the NC-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the NC-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the NC-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the NC-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic Party’s victory is near-certain, while the remaining outcomes—which include a Republican win and various other scenarios—are all long shots.
Context
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 96.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
As of 8 min ago, markets assign a 96.5% probability to the Democratic Party retaining the NC-12 House seat. The contract resolves to the party of the winner of North Carolina’s 12th congressional district in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, held on November 3, 2026. Party affiliation is taken from the candidate’s ballot listing or, for independent candidates, the party with which they have most recently declared an intent to caucus at the time the House races are conclusively called. The market relies on a consensus of credible news reports to determine the winner. Should reporting be contradictory or unclear, it falls back to the official results published by the Federal Election Commission. The key formal condition that will settle the market is the election itself, on Nov 4, 2026. The resolution source—credible reporting or, in a disputed scenario, the FEC—provides the definitive trigger for payout.
FAQ
When does this market resolve?
It resolves after the NC-12 House election winner is determined, on or shortly after November 3, 2026.
How is a candidate’s party determined?
By ballot-listed affiliation or, if none, by the party they most recently intended to caucus with when the election is called.
What if the election result is disputed?
The market first looks to a consensus of credible reporting; if unclear, it uses official FEC data.
Does the market consider third-party or independent candidates?
Yes, but they are grouped with a major party based on caucusing intent; outcomes beyond Democrat or Republican are negligible.
Where does the resolution data come from?
Credible media consensus, with the FEC as a formal fallback.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice