Sep 18, 2026
Probability rose from 95.0% to 96.0% — a 1.1-point move over the past day.
ND-AL House Election Winner: Market Odds
Markets price the Republican Party at 95.6% to retain North Dakota's at-large House seat in the 2026 midterms, with voters deciding on Nov 4, 2026. The GOP is near-certain.
95.6%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Republican Party win the ND-AL House seat?
Updated · Volume $59.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the ND-AL House seat? | 95.6% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the ND-AL House seat? | 3.1% | -0.1 |
| Will another party win the ND-AL House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the ND-AL House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the ND-AL House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the ND-AL House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the ND-AL House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the ND-AL House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican candidate is near-certain, while the other outcomes are all long shots.
Context
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 94.8% to 96.0% — a 1.2-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 94.2% to 96.2% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
The contract currently trades at 95.6%. Over the past day it has moved 0.0 pts. The market settles based on the party of the winner of North Dakota's at-large House district in the 2026 midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or if none, by the party they last expressed intent to caucus with. The outcome is called from a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as a tiebreaker if needed. The election on Nov 4, 2026 is the key event. Until then, any reporting that clarifies candidate affiliations or caucusing intentions could shift the price. The final settlement relies on credible reporting consensus or, in ambiguous cases, the FEC's official tally.
FAQ
How does the market determine the winner's party?
It uses the candidate's ballot-listed affiliation. If no party is listed on the ballot, it looks at which party the candidate most recently expressed intent to caucus with.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves after the 2026 midterm elections, once a winner is declared and party affiliation is established per the rules. Official results from the FEC can be used if needed.
What if a candidate switches parties after the election?
The party is determined at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called, based on the affiliation at that moment, not later changes.
What happens if the election result is disputed?
The market looks to a consensus of credible reporting. If that remains ambiguous, it falls back on the official FEC results.
Can a third-party or independent candidate win?
Yes, but the market treats them as belonging to the party they caucus with, if any. If they have no party ties, the market would resolve accordingly.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice