Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 78.5% to 83.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
NE-02 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price a Democratic hold in Nebraska’s 2nd district at 90.5%, with the contract last updated 8 min ago.
90.5%-0.5 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the NE-02 House seat?
Updated · Volume $40.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the NE-02 House seat? | 90.5% | -0.5 |
| Will the Republican Party win the NE-02 House seat? | 8.0% | -0.1 |
| Will B win the NE-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the NE-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the NE-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the NE-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the NE-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the NE-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic Party is strongly favored to retain the seat, while all other scenarios, including a Republican pickup, are outside chances.
Context
Aug 22, 2026
Probability rose from 78.5% to 83.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 78.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 78.5% to 81.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 16, 2026
Probability fell from 82.5% to 79.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
The price sits at 90.5%. Over the observed period it has varied between 77.5% and 92.0%, shifting -0.5 pts in the last day. The market resolves to the party of the candidate winning NE-02 in the 2026 U.S. House midterms, set for November 3, 2026. Party is determined by ballot-listed affiliation or, if none, the most recent caucus intent when all House elections are called. The resolution depends on a consensus of credible reporting, defaulting to official FEC data if ambiguity arises. The number will move as the election nears and when credible reporting or the FEC provides results. No other formal triggers are stated.
FAQ
When does this market resolve?
It resolves after the November 3, 2026 midterm elections, based on the party that wins Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district.
How is the winner’s party determined?
By the ballot-listed affiliation. If none, it defaults to the party with which the candidate most recently expressed intent to caucus when all House elections are called.
What if the election result is disputed or unclear?
The market first looks to a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity persists, it uses official Federal Election Commission results.
What is the resolution source?
Primarily consensus reporting, with the FEC serving as the fallback for official results.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice