Sep 8, 2026
Probability fell from 5.1% to 2.3% — a 2.8-point move over the past day.
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30? Odds & Probability
The probability that Netanyahu drops out of the Israeli election by September 30 stands at 1.3%, with the market requiring a definitive announcement by July 31, 2026.
1.3%-0.4 pts 24h
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?
Updated · Volume $190.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30? | 1.3% | -0.4 |
| Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline outcome—Netanyahu drops out by September 30—is the main focus of the market, with all other scenarios considered long shots.
Context
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 4.2% to 7.1% — a 2.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 5.3% to 3.5% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Netanyahu’s Likud Party holds primaries ahead of Israel’s general elections — Al Jazeera
Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 4.1% to 6.8% — a 2.7-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability rose from 4.9% to 6.2% — a 1.3-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 20.1% to 18.4% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability fell from 20.9% to 18.6% — a 2.4-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 4.8% to 18.4% — a 13.6-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Knesset dissolves: How will Israel vote in October’s general election? — Al Jazeera
Jul 17, 2026
Probability rose from 7.6% to 26.6% — a 18.9-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Knesset dissolves: How will Israel vote in October’s general election? — Al Jazeera
The market has been steady, currently at 1.3%. Its range over the period has been 1.3% to 7.2%. Trading volume is $190.6K. This market resolves to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu makes a definitive announcement that he will not run for reelection to the Knesset in the 2026 election, provided the announcement comes by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Suggestions or non‑definitive statements do not count. The primary resolution source is official information from Netanyahu, but a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if needed. The formal triggers are the resolution deadline of July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the scheduled election date of October 27, 2026. Any definitive withdrawal statement from Netanyahu before the deadline would directly move the market, as would credible reporting meeting the resolution criteria. The market strictly hinges on the presence or absence of such an announcement by the cutoff.
FAQ
What counts as a definitive announcement?
The market requires an unequivocal statement from Netanyahu that he will not run for reelection. Non‑definitive suggestions or statements of consideration do not resolve the market.
Who decides if an announcement is definitive?
The primary resolution source is official information from Netanyahu; if that is unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
What is the exact deadline?
The announcement must come by July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time.
Does the election date affect resolution?
No. The market resolves solely on the announcement by the deadline, regardless of when the election takes place.
What if he announces after the deadline?
The market would resolve to “No,” because only announcements made by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET are considered.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice