New Hampshire Senate Election Winner Odds & Probability
Markets give Democrats a 81.5% chance of keeping the New Hampshire Senate seat in 2026, according to 15 min ago data.
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
Updated · Volume $102.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | 81.5% | +0.5 |
| Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | 18.5% | +1.0 |
| Will a candidate not listed above win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Markets price a Democratic hold as strongly favored, with the Republican and other scenarios all long shots.
Context
The contract has traded between 80.0% and 89.5% in recent months. It now stands at 81.5%. The market resolves to the winner of the 2026 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. It settles once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate; if no consensus call emerges, resolution follows the official certification. Resolution remains pending until either the three-network consensus or official certification, with the election itself set for November 2026. Any run-off would extend the timeline.
FAQ
Which sources decide the winner?
The market looks to the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. All three must call the race for the same candidate; otherwise, it resolves on the official certification.
Does the market include run-offs?
Yes, the market is inclusive of any run-off that may occur in the election.
When will the market resolve?
Resolution occurs once all three designated news sources project the same winner. If that doesn't happen, it follows the official certification timeline.
What about independent or third-party candidates?
They are separate outcomes and are not part of the Democrat or Republican options, even if a candidate has past party affiliation.
How are Democratic and Republican candidates defined?
Candidates are considered to represent their party if they are the official nominee. Those running as independents are not captured by the major-party options.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice