New York Governor Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Democrats are strongly favored to win the 2026 New York governor election, with prediction markets pricing their chances at 94.5%.
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?
Updated · Volume $123.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? | 94.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? | 6.0% | +0.5 |
| Will Option B win the New York governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option E win the New York governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option C win the New York governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option J win the New York governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Other win the New York governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option H win the New York governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option G win the New York governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option F win the New York governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option D win the New York governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option A win the New York governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option I win the New York governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic win outcome is overwhelmingly favored, while all other scenarios—Republican, third-party, or independent wins—languish as long shots.
Context
As of 3 min ago, the market prices a Democratic win at 94.5%. The market resolves based on the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election, as called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. Once all three sources call the race for the same candidate, the market settles. If they do not agree, the official certification determines the outcome. The market will resolve no later than the official election certification, with the resolution date currently set for Nov 3, 2026. The price reflects the probability of a Democratic win as judged by the market, and will converge to 0 or 100 when the three resolution sources call the race or when certification occurs.
FAQ
How does this market resolve?
It resolves based on the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election. The resolution sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. When all three call the race for the same candidate, the market settles; otherwise, the official certification is used.
When does the election take place?
The election is in 2026. The exact date is not specified in the market rules, but the market will resolve after the election and when the resolution conditions are met.
What if no candidate is called by all three sources?
If the three sources do not agree, the market resolves based on the official certification of the election results.
Does this market cover primary elections?
No, it only covers the general election for governor.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice