Sep 21, 2026
Probability rose from 58.5% to 66.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Bosniak Presidency 2026: Live Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of Bakir Izetbegović becoming the next Bosniak presidency member at 65.5%, making the race the favored outcome. The outcome hinges on official results from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
65.5%-1.5 pts 24h
Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?
Updated · Volume $54.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? | 65.5% | -1.5 |
| Will Bakir Izetbegović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? | 22.5% | -6.5 |
| Will Semir Efendić be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? | 2.7% | +2.1 |
| Will another candidate be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Bakir Izetbegović leads the field, with Denis Bećirović the main rival and the handful of other candidates distant long shots.
Context
Sep 20, 2026
Probability fell from 67.5% to 58.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 14, 2026
Probability rose from 62.5% to 73.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability rose from 50.0% to 61.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 53.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 54.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 61.5% to 58.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 54.0% to 61.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
The probability has traded in a range from 36.5% to 73.5% and sits at 65.5% as of 10 min ago. It has moved -1.5 pts over the last day. The market resolves based on the official result for the Bosniak member of the three-person Presidency, as certified by the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina. A candidate must win the general election in the Federation entity. If no Bosniak member is elected by the market's resolution deadline of Apr 1, 2027, the market resolves to 'Other'. Interim or caretaker appointments do not count. The central event is the general election itself, when voters in the Federation choose the Bosniak presidency member. After polls close, the market's resolution deadline — Apr 1, 2027 — looms if certification is delayed. Official announcements from the Central Election Commission, including vote tallies and certified results, are the main catalysts.
FAQ
How is the Bosniak presidency member selected?
The Bosniak member of the three-person presidency is elected by voters in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina during the general elections.
What happens if no candidate is elected by the deadline?
If no Bosniak member has been elected by the market's resolution deadline, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Does an interim or caretaker appointment count?
No, only a candidate duly elected in the general election and sworn in as the regular Bosniak member triggers a resolution to that candidate’s name.
What source confirms the outcome?
The primary resolution source is the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba), though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves once official results are certified, or, if no member is elected, at the deadline specified in the market rules.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice