Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election at 42.0%.
42.0%0.0 pts 24h
Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Updated · Volume $62.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 80.5% | +1.0 |
| Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 42.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 36.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another person advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 32.5% | — |
| Will Gabriel Attal advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 13.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 12.0% | 0.0 |
| Will François Hollande advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 6.5% | — |
| Will Dominique de Villepin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 6.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 5.7% | +0.1 |
| Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 5.5% | — |
| Will Bernard Cazeneuve advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 4.5% | — |
| Will Bruno Retailleau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 4.0% | — |
| Will Éric Zemmour advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 4.0% | — |
| Will Laurent Wauquiez advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 3.8% | — |
| Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 3.8% | — |
| Will François Ruffin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 3.3% | — |
| Will Sébastien Lecornu advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 3.1% | — |
| Will Fabien Roussel advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 3.1% | — |
| Will Élisabeth Borne advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 3.0% | — |
| Will Olivier Faure advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 2.9% | — |
| Will François Bayrou advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 2.5% | — |
| Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 2.4% | — |
| Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 1.8% | — |
| Will François Asselineau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 1.7% | — |
| Will Michel Barnier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 1.6% | — |
| Will Yaël Braun-Pivet advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 1.5% | — |
| Will Xavier Bertrand advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 1.4% | — |
| Will Mathilde Panot advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 1.4% | — |
| Will Gérald Darmanin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 1.3% | — |
| Will Carole Delga advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 1.2% | — |
| Will Ségolène Royal advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 1.1% | — |
| Will Jean Castex advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 1.1% | — |
| Will Clémence Guetté advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 1.0% | — |
| Will Marine Tondelier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 0.9% | — |
| Will Clémentine Autain advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 0.7% | — |
| Will Juan Branco advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 0.4% | — |
| Will Valérie Pécresse advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | 0.3% | — |
The top 5 outcomes account for 204.5% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 37 tracked outcomes and $62.4K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election, is priced at 42.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice