Next French Presidential Election: Who Advances to the Second Round?

Prediction markets price Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election at 49.0%.

49.0%0.0 pts 24h

Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?

Updated · Volume $188.1K

36%41%46%52%Aug 21Aug 29Sep 5Sep 13Sep 20
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?89.0%+0.5
Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?49.0%0.0
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?38.0%-1.0
Will another person advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?32.5%0.0
Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?10.8%-0.4
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?9.0%0.0
Will François Hollande advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?7.0%+0.4
Will Raphaël Glucksmann advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?7.0%0.0
Will Olivier Faure advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?6.2%0.0
Will Gabriel Attal advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?6.0%0.0
Will Dominique de Villepin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?5.0%0.0
Will Sébastien Lecornu advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?4.8%-0.1
Will Éric Zemmour advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?4.8%0.0
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?4.8%0.0
Will François Bayrou advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?3.8%0.0
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?3.6%-0.6
Will Juan Branco advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?3.4%0.0
Will Bernard Cazeneuve advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?3.3%0.0
Will Bruno Retailleau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?3.2%-0.1
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2.8%0.0
Will Élisabeth Borne advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2.7%0.0
Will Clémentine Autain advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2.5%0.0
Will Laurent Wauquiez advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2.4%0.0
Will Carole Delga advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2.4%0.0
Will Marine Tondelier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2.4%-0.1
Will Ségolène Royal advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2.3%+0.1
Will François Ruffin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2.2%0.0
Will Jean Castex advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2.1%-0.2
Will Fabien Roussel advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2.1%0.0
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?1.8%0.0
Will François Asselineau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?1.8%0.0
Will Valérie Pécresse advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?1.7%+0.2
Will Clémence Guetté advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?1.6%0.0
Will Gérald Darmanin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?1.4%-0.1
Will Xavier Bertrand advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?1.1%0.0
Will Michel Barnier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?0.9%0.0
Will Mathilde Panot advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?0.3%0.0

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 37 tracked outcomes and $188.1K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election, is priced at 49.0%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

Embed this widget
TypeTheme

Free to use. Please keep the “ChanceIndex” attribution. It updates itself — no scripts, no cookies.