Next French Presidential Election: Who Advances to the Second Round?

Prediction markets price Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election at 45.0%.

45.0%+2.5 pts 24h

Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?

Updated · Volume $149.7K

35%43%51%59%Aug 15Aug 23Aug 30Sep 7Sep 14
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?88.0%-0.5
Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?45.0%+2.5
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?44.5%-1.0
Will another person advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?32.5%0.0
Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?10.1%-5.2
Will Raphaël Glucksmann advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?7.0%0.0
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?6.7%+2.5
Will François Hollande advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?6.3%+1.4
Will Olivier Faure advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?6.0%+0.1
Will Gabriel Attal advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?5.8%-0.1
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?5.5%0.0
Will Michel Barnier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?5.1%-0.0
Will Gérald Darmanin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?5.1%-0.8
Will Éric Zemmour advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?4.8%0.0
Will Sébastien Lecornu advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?4.5%+0.1
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?4.5%+0.3
Will Dominique de Villepin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?4.5%0.0
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?4.2%-0.5
Will François Bayrou advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?3.6%-1.1
Will Bernard Cazeneuve advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?3.5%-0.7
Will Juan Branco advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?3.0%-0.3
Will Marine Tondelier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2.9%+0.1
Will Fabien Roussel advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2.6%+0.8
Will Clémentine Autain advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2.6%-1.3
Will Jean Castex advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2.5%0.0
Will Bruno Retailleau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2.5%0.0
Will Carole Delga advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2.4%0.0
Will Clémence Guetté advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2.4%0.0
Will Laurent Wauquiez advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2.3%0.0
Will François Ruffin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2.3%0.0
Will Élisabeth Borne advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2.3%0.0
Will Ségolène Royal advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2.2%-2.8
Will François Asselineau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?1.8%0.0
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?1.6%0.0
Will Valérie Pécresse advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?1.4%+0.1
Will Mathilde Panot advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?1.3%0.0
Will Xavier Bertrand advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?1.1%0.0

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 37 tracked outcomes and $149.7K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election, is priced at 45.0%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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