Sep 20, 2026
Probability fell from 40.5% to 39.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Next Senate Majority Leader: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader at 38.5%.
38.5%+1.0 pts 24h
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Updated · Volume $164.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 38.5% | +1.0 |
| Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 33.5% | -1.0 |
| Will Brian Schatz be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 9.3% | -4.8 |
| Will Cory Booker be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 4.5% | -3.2 |
| Will Tom Cotton be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 2.9% | -0.8 |
| Will Steve Daines be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 1.5% | +0.4 |
| Will John Barrasso be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 1.4% | -0.1 |
| Will Patty Murray be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 0.9% | +0.1 |
| Will Mark Kelly be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 0.3% | +0.3 |
| Will Amy Klobuchar be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 0.3% | +0.2 |
| Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Lindsey Graham be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will someone else be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will John Cornyn be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Dick Durbin be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 95.5% of the total probability.
Context
Sep 18, 2026
Probability fell from 44.0% to 37.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 37.0% to 41.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 11, 2026
Probability rose from 35.5% to 41.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 32.5% to 50.5% — a 18.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 32.5% to 41.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 15 tracked outcomes and $164.9K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader, is priced at 38.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice