Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 37.0% to 41.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Next Senate Majority Leader: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader at 44.5%.
44.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Updated · Volume $155.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 44.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 31.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Brian Schatz be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 5.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Tom Cotton be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 2.8% | -0.3 |
| Will John Barrasso be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 1.5% | -0.2 |
| Will Steve Daines be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 1.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Patty Murray be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Cory Booker be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Mark Kelly be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Amy Klobuchar be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will John Cornyn be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Lindsey Graham be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will someone else be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Dick Durbin be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 97.4% of the total probability.
Context
Aug 11, 2026
Probability rose from 35.5% to 41.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 32.5% to 50.5% — a 18.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 32.5% to 41.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 15 tracked outcomes and $155.7K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader, is priced at 44.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice