Next Senate Majority Leader: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader at 44.5%.

44.5%0.0 pts 24h

Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?

Updated · Volume $155.7K

39%42%44%47%Aug 17Aug 24Aug 31Sep 8Sep 15
OutcomeProbability24h
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?44.5%0.0
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?31.5%0.0
Will Brian Schatz be the next Senate Majority Leader?5.3%0.0
Will Tom Cotton be the next Senate Majority Leader?2.8%-0.3
Will John Barrasso be the next Senate Majority Leader?1.5%-0.2
Will Steve Daines be the next Senate Majority Leader?1.3%0.0
Will Patty Murray be the next Senate Majority Leader?0.5%0.0
Will Cory Booker be the next Senate Majority Leader?0.4%0.0
Will Mark Kelly be the next Senate Majority Leader?0.1%0.0
Will Amy Klobuchar be the next Senate Majority Leader?0.1%0.0
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader?0.0%0.0
Will John Cornyn be the next Senate Majority Leader?0.0%0.0
Will Lindsey Graham be the next Senate Majority Leader?0.0%0.0
Will someone else be the next Senate Majority Leader?0.0%0.0
Will Dick Durbin be the next Senate Majority Leader?0.0%0.0

The top 5 outcomes account for 97.4% of the total probability.

Context

Aug 12, 2026

Probability rose from 37.0% to 41.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.

Aug 11, 2026

Probability rose from 35.5% to 41.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.

Jul 19, 2026

Probability rose from 32.5% to 50.5% — a 18.0-point move over the past day.

Jul 18, 2026

Probability rose from 32.5% to 41.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 15 tracked outcomes and $155.7K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader, is priced at 44.5%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

Embed this widget
TypeTheme

Free to use. Please keep the “ChanceIndex” attribution. It updates itself — no scripts, no cookies.