Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 56.5% to 35.5% — a 21.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Nigel Farage to be quizzed as he battles to contain growing donations scandal – UK politics live — The Guardian
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance that Nigel Farage ceases to be Reform UK leader at 28.0%, putting the odds firmly in the a substantial minority view camp. The contract hinges on any departure during 2026, regardless of effective date.
28.0%-2.5 pts 24h
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?
Updated · Volume $271.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027? | 28.0% | -2.5 |
| Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026? | 16.0% | -2.5 |
The Yes outcome—Farage leaving the leadership—sits at a substantial minority view odds, while the No side remains heavily favored by the market.
Context
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 25.0% to 56.5% — a 31.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Has Reform UK donations exposé caused a split in Nigel Farage’s party? — The Guardian
Aug 16, 2026
Probability fell from 42.0% to 33.5% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 18.0% to 39.5% — a 21.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: What’s next for far-right Reform UK after Farage’s by-election win? — Al Jazeera
Aug 11, 2026
Probability fell from 22.5% to 19.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Nigel Farage vows to deport foreign criminals from UK prisons — Al Jazeera
Show earlier updates
Aug 2, 2026
Probability rose from 19.0% to 21.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 19.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
The probability that Farage exits as Reform UK leader currently sits at 28.0%. The market resolves to Yes if Nigel Farage ceases to be Leader of Reform UK for any period between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of resignation or removal before that cutoff immediately triggers a Yes resolution, irrespective of when the change takes effect. Resolution sources are official information from Reform UK or a consensus of credible reporting. The contract’s exposure runs until Apr 1, 2027. Any formal resignation, removal, or credible reports of such would shift the probability sharply. No intermediate milestones are specified in the rules.
FAQ
What does it take for the market to resolve to Yes?
Any period of time in which Nigel Farage is not the Leader of Reform UK between now and December 31, 2026, including an announced resignation or removal, even if it takes effect later.
Does the market require him to be out permanently?
No. Even a temporary departure qualifies, as long as it occurs at any point before the deadline.
What if there is a dispute about whether he stepped down?
The resolution relies on official Reform UK statements or a consensus of credible reporting.
What happens if the deadline passes and he remains leader?
The market resolves to No.
Can a resignation be retracted after it is announced?
The market resolves to Yes immediately upon any credible announcement of resignation or removal; a later retraction does not change the outcome.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice