NJ-01 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
As of 15 min ago, markets price the Democratic Party at 94.5% — strongly favored to hold the seat — for the 2026 midterms.
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-01 House seat?
Updated · Volume $50.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-01 House seat? | 94.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the NJ-01 House seat? | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the NJ-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the NJ-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the NJ-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the NJ-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the NJ-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the NJ-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic win is strongly favored; all other outcomes are considered unlikely or remote.
Context
The odds for a Democratic hold have shifted only modestly over the period tracked. The market-implied probability now sits at 94.5%. Volume across all outcomes totals $$50.9K. This market resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins New Jersey's 1st congressional district in the November 3, 2026, midterm elections. A candidate's party is defined by their ballot-listed affiliation; for those without a clear affiliation, the deciding factor is the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus when the House races are conclusively called. Should the winner be ambiguous, the market relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission's official results serving as the ultimate backstop. Beyond the election itself, any official candidate filings or withdrawals, along with polling releases, could influence where the price settles. No other formal milestones are specified in the market rules, though the resolution date (Nov 4, 2026) remains the final anchor.
FAQ
How is the winner's party determined?
The party is based on the candidate's ballot-listed affiliation at the time the result is called. If a candidate has no ballot-listed affiliation, the market uses the party they most recently said they would caucus with when the elections are conclusively called.
What happens if the election outcome is disputed?
The market resolves according to a consensus of credible reporting. If that consensus is unclear, the official results from the Federal Election Commission are used.
When is the 2026 midterm election?
The general election for the U.S. House of Representatives, including NJ-01, is scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Does a candidate need to be officially nominated to win?
The market resolves on the general election winner, so the candidate must win the general election, not just a primary. Party nominations happen earlier but do not directly settle this market.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice