NJ-10 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Democratic win at 95.0%, making it near-certain. The election takes place on Nov 3, 2026.
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-10 House seat?
Updated · Volume $46.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-10 House seat? | 95.0% | +0.5 |
| Will the Republican Party win the NJ-10 House seat? | 4.5% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the NJ-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the NJ-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the NJ-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the NJ-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the NJ-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the NJ-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic win is near-certain, while the remaining scenarios are all long shots.
Context
The probability stands at 95.0%. Over the last day, it moved +0.5 pts. The market resolves based on the party of the winning candidate in the NJ-10 district in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, if none, by the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. The outcome is settled by a consensus of credible reporting, defaulting to official Federal Election Commission results if necessary. Resolution turns on the election outcome on Nov 3, 2026. If there is ambiguity, the market looks to the Federal Election Commission's official results.
FAQ
How is a candidate's party determined for this market?
The market uses the candidate's ballot-listed party affiliation. If no party is listed, it uses the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus at the time all the 2026 House elections are called.
What sources are used to resolve the market?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it defaults to the official results from the Federal Election Commission.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves once the 2026 midterm elections are conclusively called for the NJ-10 district. The election takes place on Nov 3, 2026, but resolution may occur later if results are delayed.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice