NJ-11 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Democratic hold at 95.5%, making it near-certain for New Jersey's 11th district in the election due on Nov 4, 2026.
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-11 House seat?
Updated · Volume $42.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-11 House seat? | 95.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the NJ-11 House seat? | 4.5% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the NJ-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the NJ-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the NJ-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the NJ-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the NJ-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the NJ-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
A Democratic victory is near-certain; the remaining scenarios—including a Republican win—are all unlikely.
Context
The price of a Democratic win stands at 95.5%. The line has stayed near its upper bound. The market resolves based on the party of the winning candidate in the 2026 midterm election for New Jersey's 11th congressional district. The result is determined by a consensus of credible reporting; if that consensus is unclear, the official tally from the Federal Election Commission serves as the backstop. A candidate's party is defined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or if none, the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. The contract's terms tie its value to a single event: the conclusive calling of the election. The election is scheduled for Nov 4, 2026. Until then, polling releases, candidate withdrawals, or third-party entrances could nudge traders' assessments, but the final settlement is strictly binary—either a Democrat wins, or the market pays out for any other result.
FAQ
What determines the winning party in this market?
The market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 House seat, as per ballot-listed affiliation or expressed caucus intent if unaffiliated.
How is the election result verified?
The market first looks for a consensus of credible reporting. If reporting is ambiguous, it relies on the official results from the Federal Election Commission.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by credible sources or the FEC, which may be after the November 3 election date.
What happens if the winner is not a Democrat or Republican?
If a candidate's party is not clearly Democrat or Republican, it is determined by their most recent stated caucus intent. The market pays out for any outcome other than a Democratic win.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice