NM-01 House Election Winner: Live Market Probability
Prediction markets price the Democratic Party's chances of holding New Mexico's 1st congressional district at 93.5%. The 2026 midterm election is set for November 3, 2026.
Will the Democratic Party win the NM-01 House seat?
Updated · Volume $36.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the NM-01 House seat? | 93.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the NM-01 House seat? | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the NM-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the NM-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the NM-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the NM-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the NM-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the NM-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic victory is strongly favored, while the other outcomes represent a range of less probable alternatives.
Context
The probability of a Democratic win in this district currently stands at 93.5%. It moved 0.0 pts in the past 24 hours The line has held within a relatively stable range, reflecting a market that sees one party with a durable advantage. The market resolves to the party of the winning candidate. If a candidate's party is not on the ballot, it will be determined by their most recently expressed caucus intent. Settlement will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or the official FEC results if ambiguity arises. The key date is the election itself, Nov 3, 2026, when the market will settle. Between now and then, the probability may shift as new information emerges. The resolution source—credible reporting or the FEC—provides the official framework.
FAQ
How does the market determine the winning party?
It resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 seat. A candidate's party is taken from their ballot-listed affiliation, or if none, from the party they most recently said they would caucus with.
What if no candidate has a ballot-listed party?
The market looks at their most recent stated intent to caucus with a party at the time the 2026 House elections are conclusively called.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves based on the result of the 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. Settlement occurs once a consensus of credible reporting is reached, or if needed, after the FEC releases official results.
What sources are used for resolution?
Primarily, a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, the market falls back to official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice