Sep 21, 2026
Probability fell from 95.0% to 93.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
NM-02 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the Democratic Party at 94.5% to hold the NM-02 House seat, strongly favored for the 2026 midterm elections.
94.5%-0.5 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the NM-02 House seat?
Updated · Volume $49.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the NM-02 House seat? | 94.5% | -0.5 |
| Will the Republican Party win the NM-02 House seat? | 5.5% | -0.5 |
| Will C win the NM-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the NM-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the NM-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the NM-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the NM-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the NM-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic Party holds a commanding lead, while the Republican Party is an outside chance and all other outcomes are considered long shots.
Context
Sep 19, 2026
Probability fell from 95.0% to 93.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
The headline probability sits at 94.5% as of 3 min ago. It has ranged from 88.0% to 95.0% over the tracked window, with a -0.5 pts move in the past day The line has held steady at levels that signal a one-sided contest. This market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district in the November 3, 2026, U.S. House election. A candidate's party is determined by ballot-listed affiliation, or by the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus if no affiliation is listed. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguity persists, the official Federal Election Commission result becomes the sole source. The election date, Nov 5, 2026, is the formal milestone that will settle the contract. Before then, shifts in the market could accompany primary results, candidate declarations, or third-party entries, though those are not specified in the resolution rules. The only binding conditions are the ballot outcome and the subsequent reporting consensus.
FAQ
How is the winner's party determined?
If a candidate's party appears on the ballot, that is used. Otherwise, the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus at the time elections are called determines their affiliation.
What happens if a candidate is not affiliated with a major party?
They are assigned to the party they intended to caucus with. If no such intent is expressed, they may fall outside the Democrat/Republican outcomes and into the group of other parties, though such scenarios are priced as negligible.
When does the market resolve?
The election is on November 3, 2026. The market resolves after credible reporting establishes a consensus winner. If reports conflict, resolution waits for the official FEC result.
What sources are used for resolution?
Primarily, a consensus of credible reporting. If that proves ambiguous, the official United States government result from the Federal Election Commission (fec.gov) is used.
What if official results are delayed?
The market may rely on a consensus of credible reporting even before official certification. Only when reporting is ambiguous does it fall back on the FEC's determination, which could take additional time.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice