Norfolk PCC By-Election Winner: Live Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Colin Sutton’s chance of winning the Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election on July 16, 2026 at 100.0%.
Will someone else win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election?
Updated · Volume $37.1K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Colin Sutton win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election? | 100.0% | — |
| Will someone else win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Matthew Taylor win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Martin Schmierer win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Beth Jones win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Mark Rhoades Buckton win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Christopher John Brown win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Marcus Howard Pearcey win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election? | 0.0% | — |
Colin Sutton is near-certain to win; the eleven other named candidates are each seen as finely balanced.
Context
The market’s view of Sutton’s chances sits at 100.0%, a level that qualifies as near-certain. The contract settles on the official winner of the 2026 Norfolk PCC by-election, as published by the Norfolk PCC website or Broadland District Council. A definitive result must be known by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time; absent that, the market resolves to 'Other.'
The probability is sensitive to news arriving ahead of the July 16 election that alters the race’s dynamics. The long-stop date of March 31, 2027, also matters—prolonged uncertainty could affect pricing as that deadline approaches.
FAQ
When does the Norfolk PCC by-election take place?
The election is scheduled for July 16, 2026.
What happens if no winner is declared by March 31, 2027?
The market resolves to 'Other' at 11:59 PM ET on that date if the result remains unknown.
How is the official winner determined for this market?
The resolution uses consensus credible reporting, and in case of ambiguity, official results from the Norfolk Police & Crime Commissioner website or Broadland District Council.
What are the criteria for a candidate to be considered the winner?
The candidate who wins the by-election as per the official sources is the resolution outcome.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice