Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 94.8% to 96.7% — a 1.9-point move over the past day.
NY-05 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price a 96.9% chance that the Democratic Party holds the NY-05 congressional seat in the 2026 midterms, set for November 3, 2026.
96.9%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-05 House seat?
Updated · Volume $63.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-05 House seat? | 96.9% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the NY-05 House seat? | 1.1% | -0.1 |
| Will C win the NY-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the NY-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the NY-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the NY-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the NY-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the NY-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic Party outcome is near-certain, while the remaining scenarios—including a Republican win or any other candidate—are all long shots.
Context
Prediction markets currently price the Democratic Party's chances of holding the NY-05 seat at 96.9%. Over the last day, the probability shifted by 0.0 pts; The market resolves based on the party of the winning candidate in the November 3, 2026 general election. A candidate's party is determined by ballot-listed affiliation, or, for those without one, by the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus at the time all 2026 House races are called. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, falling back to official results from the Federal Election Commission if the outcome is unclear. The election date itself is fixed, but the price may respond to news about candidate entries, polling, or other developments as the campaign progresses. Formal resolution will occur only after the vote, once the result is reported conclusively.
FAQ
How is the winning party determined?
The market resolves to the party of the winning candidate, based on their ballot-listed affiliation. If no such affiliation is listed, the party is defined by the most recently expressed caucus intent as of when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called.
What happens if the election result is contested or unclear?
The market first relies on a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity remains, it resolves solely on the official results as reported by the Federal Election Commission.
When does the market resolve?
Resolution occurs after the November 3, 2026 midterm elections, once the outcome for NY-05 is conclusively called by the designated resolution sources or certified officially.
What counts as a consensus of credible reporting?
A consensus of credible reporting means that multiple reputable news organizations independently report the same winner. The market operator determines when such a consensus exists, as per the market's published rules.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice