NY-09 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability

The contract has traded within a range. As of 16 min ago, the price is 95.2%. Total volume stands at $61.2K. This market resolves based on the party of the candidate who wins the NY-09 congressional district in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, scheduled for Nov 4, 2026. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, if none, the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with at the time the House elections are conclusively called. Resolution will follow a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguity remains, the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission will be used. The primary event that will settle the contract is the election on Nov 4, 2026. Until then, any new information—such as candidate announcements, polling data, or changes in the political environment—that alters the perceived likelihood of a Democratic victory could shift the probability. The market's ultimate resolution depends on the winner's party as defined by ballot or caucus intent, so any clarity or uncertainty around those affiliations could also move prices.