Aug 4, 2026
Probability rose from 94.3% to 96.0% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
NY-10 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Democratic win in NY-10 at 98.6%. The contest will be decided at the Nov 3, 2026 midterms.
98.6%+0.2 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-10 House seat?
Updated · Volume $53.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-10 House seat? | 98.6% | +0.2 |
| Will the Republican Party win the NY-10 House seat? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the NY-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the NY-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the NY-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the NY-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the NY-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the NY-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic Party's hold on the seat is near-certain, with all other possibilities remaining distant long shots.
Context
Aug 3, 2026
Probability rose from 94.3% to 96.0% — a 1.8-point move over the past day.
The probability of a Democratic hold has stayed in near-certain territory throughout the observed period. In the last day, it moved +0.2 pts. The market resolves based on the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional seat in the U.S. House of Representatives at the 2026 midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, for those without a listing, the party with which they most recently stated an intent to caucus. The resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting; if the outcome is ambiguous, it defers to the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission. The market's resolution hinges on the result of the Nov 3, 2026 election. The settlement source is either consensus credible reporting or, in case of ambiguity, the Federal Election Commission. The determination of the winning party follows the ballot and caucus rules set out in the market description.
FAQ
How is the winning party determined?
The market uses the ballot-listed party affiliation. If the candidate has no such affiliation, it uses the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus, as of the time all House elections are conclusively called.
What sources are used to resolve the market?
It resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. Should that prove ambiguous, the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission become the sole source.
When does the market settle?
Settlement occurs after the 2026 midterm elections, once the winner is clear and the reporting consensus—or the FEC—establishes the outcome.
What happens if the election result is disputed?
The market rules defer to the FEC's official results whenever there is ambiguity in the consensus of credible reporting.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice