Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 92.1% to 96.4% — a 4.2-point move over the past day.
NY-13 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by less than 5% at 98.4%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by less than 5%Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $93.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? | 98.4% | — |
| Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? | 0.4% | — |
| Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by more than 10%? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 10% or more? | 0.0% | — |
| Will another outcome occur in the NY-13 Democratic Primary? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Jul 17, 2026
Probability fell from 95.5% to 92.9% — a 2.6-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 92.5% to 96.3% — a 3.7-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice