NY-13 House Election Winner: Latest Odds & Probability

The contract's trajectory has remained in a tight range near the top of the probability scale. As of 11 min ago, it sits at 97.3%. The chart shows a line that has stayed in near-certain terrain with only minor fluctuations, reflecting a market that sees little chance of a Democratic loss. Resolution turns on the actual election result. The market will settle according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 seat in the U.S. House during the 2026 midterm elections on Nov 4, 2026. A candidate's party is taken from their ballot-listed affiliation. If that is absent, it defaults to the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. When the race is called, a consensus of credible reporting will determine the outcome. Should reports conflict or leave room for ambiguity, the Federal Election Commission's official tally becomes the deciding source. Several formal conditions could nudge the probability between now and resolution. The most significant is any change in the ballot status of candidates—such as a withdrawal or replacement—that alters the expected lineup before Nov 4, 2026. Polling data that diverges sharply from the district's historical voting patterns might also move the price, though the contract's current level leaves little room for upside. Once the election is held, the contract will wait until the winner is evident either through consistent news reports or the FEC's final certification.