NY-14 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets give the Democrats a 95.5% chance of retaining New York's 14th district, near-certain heading into the 2026 midterms.
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-14 House seat?
Updated · Volume $54.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-14 House seat? | 95.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the NY-14 House seat? | 3.5% | +0.1 |
| Will another party win the NY-14 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the NY-14 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the NY-14 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the NY-14 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the NY-14 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the NY-14 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic hold is strongly favored, while other outcomes are long shots.
Context
The contract now stands at 95.5%. The market resolves to the party of the winning candidate in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House election for New York’s 14th district. A candidate’s party is based on their ballot-listed affiliation or, if none, the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus. The result is determined by a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguous, the Federal Election Commission’s official tally is used. The probability will remain live until the election on Nov 3, 2026. Any news that shifts perceptions of the district’s partisan lean—polls, candidate announcements, national trends—could move the odds.
FAQ
How is the winning party determined?
By the candidate’s ballot-listed party. If a candidate has no such affiliation, the party they most recently caucused with is used.
When does the market resolve?
After the November 3, 2026 midterms, once a consensus of credible reporting names a winner. In case of ambiguity, the Federal Election Commission's official result settles it.
What if no candidate gets a majority?
The market still resolves to the party of the declared winner, as determined by the consensus or the FEC.
Can a winning candidate's party affiliation change after the election?
No, the affiliation is fixed as of when the 2026 House elections are conclusively called.
Where does the pricing data come from?
Prices reflect trading activity on prediction markets. Resolution follows official sources, as defined in the market rules.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice