NY-15 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price the Democratic Party's chances of winning the NY-15 House seat at 98.3%, as of 9 min ago. The remaining scenarios are all long shots.
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-15 House seat?
Updated · Volume $46.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-15 House seat? | 98.3% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the NY-15 House seat? | 0.4% | +0.1 |
| Will another party win the NY-15 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the NY-15 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the NY-15 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the NY-15 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the NY-15 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the NY-15 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic Party outcome is near-certain; the remaining scenarios are all long shots.
Context
The market's assessment of a Democratic win currently stands at 98.3%. Over the last day, it has moved by 0.0 pts. The contract resolves according to the party of the winning candidate in the 2026 U.S. midterm election for New York's 15th congressional district, scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or, if none, by the party they most recently expressed an intent to caucus with. The outcome is settled based on a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission used to resolve any ambiguity. The market will resolve once the winner of the NY-15 election is conclusively called by the resolution sources. The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. The contract's resolution deadline is Nov 3, 2026. The formal triggers are the consensus of credible reporting and, if ambiguity remains, the official FEC results.
FAQ
How is the winning candidate's party determined?
The winning candidate's party is based on their ballot-listed affiliation. If no party is listed, they are considered a member of the party they most recently expressed an intent to caucus with at the time the election is conclusively called.
What if no candidate has a ballot-listed party?
Then the candidate's party is determined by the party they most recently said they would caucus with when all House elections are called by the market's resolution sources.
How does the market resolve if the election result is contested?
The market first looks to a consensus of credible reporting. If that consensus is ambiguous, it uses the official results from the Federal Election Commission.
When does the market expect to resolve?
It resolves after the 2026 midterm elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources. The election date is November 3, 2026.
Who provides the official results if there's ambiguity?
If the consensus of credible reporting is unclear, the Federal Election Commission's official results serve as the final word.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice