Aug 6, 2026
Probability fell from 95.5% to 93.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
NY-16 House Election Winner Probability
Prediction markets give the Democratic candidate a 96.2% chance of winning the NY-16 district in the 2026 midterms, making them near-certain to retain the seat.
96.2%-0.1 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-16 House seat?
Updated · Volume $41.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-16 House seat? | 96.2% | -0.1 |
| Will the Republican Party win the NY-16 House seat? | 2.7% | -0.2 |
| Will E win the NY-16 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the NY-16 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the NY-16 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the NY-16 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the NY-16 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the NY-16 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic candidate is heavily favored; other outcomes—such as a Republican or third-party win—are priced as long shots.
Context
Aug 5, 2026
Probability fell from 95.0% to 93.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
The contract currently sits at 96.2%, with data updated 8 min ago. The last day moved it -0.1 pts. Volume totals $41.5K. This market settles on the party of the winner of the U.S. House seat for New York’s 16th congressional district in the November 3, 2026 midterm election. The outcome is determined by the candidate’s ballot-listed party or, if none, the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting; in case of ambiguity, it falls back on official results from the Federal Election Commission. The market resolves after the election, when a winner is determined. The scheduled date—Nov 4, 2026—is the hard cutoff, after which settlement follows official tallies. Until then, no intermediate event formally settles the contract, though perceived shifts can move the probability.
FAQ
How is the winning party determined?
The market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-16 seat. That party is based on the candidate’s ballot-listed affiliation, or if none, the party they most recently said they would caucus with.
What if the result is disputed?
Resolution first relies on a consensus of credible reporting. If that consensus is unclear, the market falls back on the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission.
When will the market settle?
The market will settle once the 2026 midterm election for NY-16 is conclusively called, based on the resolution sources. The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.
What about independent or third-party candidates?
If a candidate does not have a ballot-listed party, they are assigned a party based on their most recent caucus intent. If that intent is with neither major party, they would not resolve to Democrat or Republican.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice