NY-18 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Democratic hold in New York’s 18th congressional district at 93.3%, making it strongly favored to stay blue in the 2026 midterms.
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-18 House seat?
Updated · Volume $43.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-18 House seat? | 93.3% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the NY-18 House seat? | 6.6% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the NY-18 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the NY-18 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the NY-18 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the NY-18 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the NY-18 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the NY-18 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic hold is strongly favored, while all other outcomes—including a Republican flip—remain unlikely.
Context
The headline number stands at 93.3%. In recent days, it has moved 0.0 pts. This market resolves on the party of the winning candidate in the November 3, 2026 midterm election. A candidate’s party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, if unlisted, by the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus at the time the election is conclusively called. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting; if that proves ambiguous, the market settles solely on the Federal Election Commission’s official results. The one hard deadline is the election itself on Nov 5, 2026. Before then, the probability can move as new information emerges, but the final settlement is tied only to the FEC-certified outcome.
FAQ
How is the winning party determined?
The market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the seat. For candidates with no ballot-listed party, affiliation is based on the party they most recently said they would caucus with when all House elections are called.
What if the result is disputed or unclear?
If credible reporting does not produce a consensus, the market resolves purely on the official results published by the Federal Election Commission.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves after the 2026 midterm election—held on November 3, 2026—once the winner is conclusively called according to the rules.
What happens if a winning candidate switches parties before the market resolves?
Resolution is based on the candidate’s affiliation at the moment the election is conclusively called, not on any later change.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice