Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 96.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
NY-20 House Election: Live Probability of Democratic Win
Prediction markets price the likelihood of the Democratic Party winning the NY-20 congressional seat in the 2026 midterms at 95.6%, making it near-certain. The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.
95.6%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-20 House seat?
Updated · Volume $35.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-20 House seat? | 95.6% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the NY-20 House seat? | 3.6% | +0.1 |
| Will E win the NY-20 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the NY-20 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the NY-20 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the NY-20 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the NY-20 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the NY-20 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic Party is overwhelmingly favored; all other potential outcomes, such as a Republican victory or a third-party win, remain long shots.
Context
Trajectory: The market now stands at 95.6%, updated 14 min ago. The probability has moved 0.0 pts in the past day. This market resolves based on the party of the winning candidate in the NY-20 district in the 2026 U.S. House midterms. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, if none, by the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. The resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting; if that is ambiguous, it defaults to official results from the Federal Election Commission. What would move the number? The primary event is the election on November 3, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026. The resolution source — credible reporting or the FEC — provides the final determination; any delays or disputes over party affiliation could shift probabilities until settled.
FAQ
How does the market determine a candidate's party?
The party is based on ballot-listed affiliation. If a candidate has no such affiliation, it uses the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus.
When does this market resolve?
It resolves after the NY-20 election results are conclusively called, following the 2026 midterms on November 3.
What sources does the market use to decide the winner?
It looks to a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it falls back on official results from the Federal Election Commission.
What happens if the result is disputed?
The market waits for a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity remains, the FEC's official results are used.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice