NY-21 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets see the Republican Party as the favored outcome to retain the NY-21 House seat, pricing the probability at 74.5%. The contest—set for the 2026 midterm elections—has drawn $68.9K in volume and last updated 15 min ago.
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?
Updated · Volume $68.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat? | 74.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat? | 23.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the NY-21 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the NY-21 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the NY-21 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the NY-21 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the NY-21 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the NY-21 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican Party is the favored outcome, while the Democratic Party represents a substantial minority view; the remaining six outcomes are long shots.
Context
The line has moved 0.0 pts over the past day and, sitting at 74.5%. Over the period it has ranged from 68.5% to 74.5%. This market resolves according to the party of the winning candidate in New York’s 21st congressional district for the 2026 midterm elections. A candidate’s party is determined by ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. For any candidate without a clear Democrat or Republican ballot line, the party is determined based on the most recently expressed intent to caucus. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting; if that consensus is ambiguous, the market resolves solely on the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission. Formal triggers for price movement include shifts in the consensus of credible reporting ahead of the vote, the election itself on November 3, 2026, and the final official tally from the FEC on Nov 3, 2026 if needed.
FAQ
How is a candidate’s party determined?
A candidate’s party is based on their ballot-listed affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If no such affiliation appears, the party is determined by the most recent intent to caucus expressed by the candidate.
When and how does the market resolve?
The market resolves after the 2026 midterm elections, once the outcome is clear from a consensus of credible reporting. If reporting is ambiguous, resolution defaults to the official results posted by the Federal Election Commission.
What if no candidate has a formal party?
In the rare case a candidate lacks a ballot-listed party, the market looks to which party caucus the candidate most recently signaled they would join, based on contemporaneous public statements.
What sources are used to call the winner?
The market relies on a consensus of credible election reporting. If that consensus is not definitive, the Federal Election Commission’s official tally serves as the final arbiter.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice