Sep 18, 2026
Probability rose from 93.5% to 97.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
OH-02 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets see the Republican Party as near-certain to win the OH-02 U.S. House seat, pricing the probability at 97.7% as of 2 min ago. The 2026 midterm vote is set for Nov 4, 2026.
97.7%+0.0 pts 24h
Will the Republican Party win the OH-02 House seat?
Updated · Volume $60.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the OH-02 House seat? | 97.7% | +0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the OH-02 House seat? | 1.9% | -0.2 |
| Will another party win the OH-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the OH-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the OH-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the OH-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the OH-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the OH-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican Party win dominates the market, while all other scenarios—a Democratic victory, third-party, or independent—are long shots.
Context
Sep 17, 2026
Probability rose from 93.5% to 96.7% — a 3.2-point move over the past day.
The market’s assessment of a Republican victory has.. Trading volume stands at $60.8K. The market resolves based on the party of the winning candidate in Ohio’s 2nd congressional district as determined by the 2026 midterm elections. A candidate’s party is their ballot-listed affiliation or, if none, the party they most recently said they would caucus with at the time all House races are called. The outcome relies on a consensus of credible news reports; should there be any ambiguity, the official results from the Federal Election Commission serve as the tiebreaker. Scheduled events that could shift the probability include the election itself on Nov 4, 2026, any formal candidate announcements or party designations, and the release of official results by the FEC. The market will remain open until the race is conclusively called.
FAQ
What decides the winning party in this market?
The market resolves based on the party of the candidate who wins Ohio’s 2nd congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections, as reported by credible media consensus or, if ambiguous, by the Federal Election Commission.
How is a candidate’s party determined?
The party is the one listed on the ballot. If no party is listed, the candidate’s most recently expressed intent to caucus with a party at the time the House elections are conclusively called will be used.
When does the market settle?
Settlement occurs once the 2026 midterm election result for OH-02 is conclusively called by credible reporting, or, in the event of ambiguity, by official FEC results.
What if the election outcome is disputed?
If there is any ambiguity in calling the winner, the market disregards unofficial reports and resolves solely on the official results published by the Federal Election Commission.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice