OH-03 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets view the Democratic hold on Ohio's 3rd congressional district as near-certain, pricing a victory at 95.5% for the 2026 midterm contest.
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-03 House seat?
Updated · Volume $58.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the OH-03 House seat? | 95.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the OH-03 House seat? | 2.1% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the OH-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the OH-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the OH-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the OH-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the OH-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the OH-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
A Democratic hold is near-certain, while all other scenarios remain remote.
Context
The contract tracking a Democratic win in OH-03 has traded close to 95.5%. Total volume sits at $58.3K. The market settles once the winner of the seat is confirmed after the 2026 midterms. A candidate's party is their ballot-listed affiliation; if none appears, the party with which they last expressed an intent to caucus when the House races are called is used. Resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting. Should ambiguity remain, the Federal Election Commission's official figures become final. The price will shift in response to any development that clarifies the electoral picture, but the only formal anchors are the midterm vote and the subsequent confirmation by the agreed resolution sources.
FAQ
How is the winning candidate's party determined?
The party is taken from the candidate's ballot-listed affiliation. If no affiliation appears, the party with which the candidate last expressed an intent to caucus at the time the House races are called is used.
How does the market resolve if the election outcome is disputed?
It looks to a consensus of credible reporting. Should that prove insufficient, the market defers to the official results published by the Federal Election Commission.
When is the market expected to resolve?
It will resolve after the 2026 midterm elections, once the winner of Ohio's 3rd district is confirmed by the resolution sources.
What if an independent or third-party candidate wins?
The market still resolves based on the candidate's party affiliation as defined above. If that candidate caucuses with a major party, the market treats that party as the winner.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice