Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 81.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
OH-10 House Election Winner: Live Odds & Probability
Markets give the Republican Party a 83.5% chance of retaining the OH-10 congressional district — strongly favored as the 2026 midterm elections approach.
83.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat?
Updated · Volume $38.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat? | 83.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the OH-10 House seat? | 17.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the OH-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the OH-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the OH-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the OH-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the OH-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the OH-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican Party is the strong favorite to win the seat, while a Democratic victory is an outside chance; all other outcomes are negligible.
Context
The OH-10 market has shown the Republican candidate as the strongly favored throughout the tracked period. The contract's price currently sits at 83.5%, with its range spanning. This market settles after the 2026 midterm elections, based on the party of the winning candidate in Ohio's 10th congressional district. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation; if none, by the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. The outcome is determined by consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the tie-breaker in case of ambiguity. The market resolves based solely on the election result and the subsequent consensus reporting, with the FEC as backup. No intermediate scheduled events or deadlines are named in the contract terms. The price reflects the continuous assessment of the race up to the point of settlement.
FAQ
How is the winning candidate's party determined?
A candidate's party is based on their ballot-listed affiliation. If no affiliation is listed, the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus is used.
What happens if the election result is contested or unclear?
The market first seeks a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity remains, it resolves based on the official results published by the Federal Election Commission.
When does the market settle?
Settlement occurs after the 2026 midterm elections, once a winner for Ohio's 10th congressional district has been declared and confirmed by reporting consensus or the FEC.
Are third-party or independent candidates considered?
Yes, they are evaluated based on their caucusing intent with either the Democratic or Republican parties. Historically, such candidates rarely win, and the market focuses on the two major parties.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice