Sep 22, 2026
Probability fell from 61.0% to 58.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Ohio Governor Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give the Republicans a 59.5% chance of retaining the governorship, leaving the race close to a coin flip.
59.5%+1.0 pts 24h
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Updated · Volume $215.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | 59.5% | +1.0 |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | 41.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Option G win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option H win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option J win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option E win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option D win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option B win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option A win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option I win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option C win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Other win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option F win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Both the Republican and Democratic options are finely balanced, while the other candidates are distant long shots.
Context
Sep 21, 2026
Probability rose from 56.5% to 61.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 59.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability rose from 58.5% to 61.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
The contract currently prices a Republican victory at 59.5%. Over the period, it has traded between 49.5% and 61.5%. The market settles once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all project the same winner. Should the networks disagree, the official certification of the result serves as the fallback. Odds fluctuate as the campaign unfolds. The ultimate resolution is expected by Nov 3, 2026 and hinges on the consensus of the three named outlets, or the certified tally if they diverge.
FAQ
How does this market determine the winner of the Ohio governor race?
The market resolves when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If they do not agree, it uses the official certification.
What happens if a third-party or independent candidate wins?
The market has separate options for non-Democratic and non-Republican candidates. Any independent who runs is treated independently, regardless of past party affiliation.
When will the market resolve?
Resolution occurs once the three-source consensus is reached or upon official certification. The event is tied to the 2026 election, with resolution expected by Nov 3, 2026.
Are there any other candidates that could affect the outcome?
Yes, the market allows for candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominees, but they are considered long shots.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice