Ohio Senate Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets as of 6 min ago give the Republicans a 56.5% chance of holding the Ohio Senate seat, a figure that has been close to a coin flip in recent weeks.
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Updated · Volume $593.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | 56.5% | +2.0 |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | 43.5% | -2.0 |
| Will a candidate not listed above win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican and Democrat outcomes are both seen as close to a coin flip, while the remaining scenarios are all long shots.
Context
The odds for a Republican victory currently sit at 56.5%, having oscillated between 51.5% and 58.5% over the period tracked. In the past 24 hours, the probability has shifted by +2.0 pts. The market resolves to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election, including any run-offs. A candidate is considered the nominee of their party, and independents are not rolled into the Democratic or Republican outcomes. Resolution relies on the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC: the market settles once all three call the race for the same candidate. If they do not agree, the official certification becomes the fallback. What would move the number are the formal conditions set by the resolution rules. The probability reflects whether those three designated sources ultimately call the race the same way—any development that makes such a consensus more or less probable could shift the price. The election is scheduled for Nov 3, 2026, though final settlement may take longer if the call is contested.
FAQ
What decides the winner of this market?
The market resolves to the candidate who wins the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election. If there is a runoff, the runoff winner is used.
Who are the resolution sources?
The Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The market resolves once all three call the race for the same candidate.
What happens if the three sources disagree?
If the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC do not all call the race for the same candidate, the market settles based on the official certification of the election result.
What about third-party or independent candidates?
Independent and third-party nominees are treated separately from the Democrat and Republican options. Additional candidates may be added to the market later.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice