Aug 28, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 96.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
OK-03 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Republican win at 96.9%, making the party the near-certain to hold Oklahoma’s 3rd congressional district. All other outcomes are remote possibilities.
96.9%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Republican Party win the OK-03 House seat?
Updated · Volume $105.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the OK-03 House seat? | 96.9% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the OK-03 House seat? | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the OK-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the OK-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the OK-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the OK-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the OK-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the OK-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican hold is the overwhelming market favorite, with the other seven outcomes collectively priced as remote possibilities.
Context
Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 96.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
The price of a Republican victory has held steady near 96.9%, with the market seeing little upside for any challenger. Trading volume has reached $105.1K, suggesting active but one-sided interest. The market will settle based on the party of the winning candidate in Oklahoma’s 3rd congressional district at the 2026 midterm election. A candidate’s party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation when all House elections are called; if no party is listed, it defaults to the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting. Only if reports are ambiguous does the market turn to the official result from the Federal Election Commission. The formal trigger for resolution is the 2026 election itself, scheduled for Nov 4, 2026. Once credible news outlets or the FEC confirm a winner, the market will resolve accordingly. No other deadlines or events are specified in the market rules.
FAQ
How is a candidate’s party determined for this market?
The candidate’s party is based on their ballot-listed affiliation at the time the 2026 House elections are called. If no affiliation is listed, it defaults to the party with which the candidate most recently stated an intent to caucus.
What happens if the winner is an independent or third-party candidate?
If the winner is not listed as a Democrat or Republican on the ballot, the market resolves based on their most recent caucus intent. If they intend to caucus with the Democrats, the Democratic outcome would resolve positively; similarly for Republicans. If neither, other outcomes would apply.
When will the market resolve?
The market resolves after the 2026 midterm election (November 3, 2026) once there is a consensus of credible reporting on the winner. If reports conflict or are ambiguous, the market waits for the official FEC result.
What sources are used to determine the election outcome?
The primary source is a consensus of credible news reports. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves solely based on the official results published by the Federal Election Commission.
Could the market resolve before the FEC certifies the result?
Yes, if credible reporting reaches a consensus on the winner. The market does not necessarily wait for official certification unless there is ambiguity in the initial calls.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice