Aug 31, 2026
Probability fell from 5.0% to 3.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
OPEC dissolves in 2026?: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of OPEC dissolving at 3.1%, an a long shot scenario. The contract resolves based on whether enough member states formally withdraw or an official dissolution agreement is reached by December 31, 2026.
3.1%-0.1 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $35.2K
The dissolution scenario is priced as a a long shot outcome at 3.1%, with OPEC's survival through 2026 the dominant expectation.
Context
Aug 30, 2026
Probability fell from 5.0% to 3.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
The probability now sits at 3.1%. To settle as “Yes,” OPEC must dissolve by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Dissolution is defined as more than half of current member states (excluding the United Arab Emirates) officially withdrawing, an agreement among members to disband the organization, or OPEC otherwise ceasing to exist as a legal entity. A withdrawal counts once a state announces it or formally initiates the process under OPEC rules, even if the exit takes effect later. OPEC+ separations alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source is official OPEC and member state information, but a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Any formal announcements of withdrawal by member states or moves toward a dissolution agreement could shift the odds, as the contract settles on official communications and credible reporting.
FAQ
How is OPEC dissolution defined for this market?
OPEC is considered dissolved if more than half of member states (excluding the UAE) officially withdraw, if an official dissolution agreement is adopted, or if OPEC ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization.
What counts as a member state withdrawal?
A withdrawal is triggered when a state officially announces its withdrawal or formally initiates withdrawal under OPEC procedure. The withdrawal does not need to take effect by the market's close—the announcement alone is sufficient.
Does leaving OPEC+ count as a withdrawal?
No. Only withdrawals from OPEC itself count. Leaving OPEC+ does not satisfy the condition.
What source determines the outcome?
The primary source is official information from OPEC and its member states. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official sources are unclear.
When does this market expire?
The market resolves based on conditions met by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice