Sep 20, 2026
Probability rose from 70.0% to 98.4% — a 28.4-point move over the past day.
PA-05 House Election Winner Odds
Prediction markets give the Democratic Party a 98.5% chance of holding the PA-05 seat in the 2026 midterms, making it near-certain.
98.5%+0.6 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-05 House seat?
Updated · Volume $37.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the PA-05 House seat? | 98.5% | +0.6 |
| Will the Republican Party win the PA-05 House seat? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the PA-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the PA-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the PA-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the PA-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the PA-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the PA-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic Party win is the strong favorite; all other outcomes are considered unlikely.
Context
Sep 19, 2026
Probability fell from 98.9% to 70.0% — a 28.9-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 93.5% to 98.3% — a 4.7-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 93.5% to 98.5% — a 4.9-point move over the past day.
The contract has traded in a steady range from 70.0% to 99.5% since its launch. The 24-hour change stands at +0.6 pts. The market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation; if none, by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with at the time the House elections are conclusively called. Resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results serving as the fallback when ambiguity exists. Beyond the election date itself, any formal deadlines that alter the candidate field—such as filing dates or primary results—could shift the market's assessment. The final resolution source is the FEC, which publishes certified results after the election.
FAQ
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves after the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026, once a consensus of credible reporting confirms the winner.
How is a candidate's party determined for resolution?
It is based on the party listed on the ballot. If a candidate has no ballot-listed party, they are assigned to the party they most recently said they would caucus with at the time the House elections are conclusively called.
What happens if the election result is disputed?
The market first looks to a consensus of credible reporting. If that consensus is unclear, it defaults to the official results published by the Federal Election Commission.
Could a candidate switching parties after the election affect resolution?
No. The party affiliation is locked in at the time all House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources, not after.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice