Sep 17, 2026
Probability fell from 10.5% to 4.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Pedro Castillo Pardoned in 2026: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of a presidential pardon for Pedro Castillo at 5.0%, with any pardon needing to materialise before the end of 2026.
5.0%+0.1 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $46.2K
Clemency for Castillo is viewed as unlikely, and the market’s structure reflects a lopsided bet against it happening.
Context
Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 14.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 18.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 10.0% to 25.5% — a 15.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 18.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 17.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 10, 2026
Probability rose from 20.5% to 32.5% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability rose from 17.0% to 21.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 17.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 6, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 16.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
The probability currently sits at 5.0%, having fluctuated between 3.7% and 21.0% over the period. Over the past day it moved +0.1 pts. The contract resolves Yes if, by the end of 2026, Peru's president issues a formal act of clemency—a pardon, commutation, right of grace, or similar—that relieves Pedro Castillo of criminal liability, conviction, or penalties. The relief must come from the president; court rulings, legislative amnesties, or prosecutorial decisions do not count. Even if later overturned, any qualifying presidential grant settles the market immediately. Determination relies primarily on official government communications, with a consensus of credible reports serving as a backup. The market's settlement hinges on a single, formal event: the required grant must be made before Jan 1, 2027. No intermediate court dates or announcements affect settlement unless they constitute the grant. The primary source is official word from Lima.
FAQ
What exactly qualifies as a pardon for this market?
Any formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru—such as a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, or humanitarian pardon—that relieves Pedro Castillo from criminal liability or penalties, even partially.
Do court rulings or legislative amnesties count?
No. Only direct, official acts of the president qualify. Acquittals, sentence reductions by judges, or parliamentary amnesties do not settle the market.
What if a pardon is issued but later challenged or overturned?
The market would resolve to Yes as soon as the pardon is officially granted, regardless of any subsequent legal action.
How is the outcome verified?
Primarily through official statements from the Peruvian government. If those are ambiguous, the market may rely on a consensus of credible media reports.
When does the market expire?
The window closes at the end of 2026. If no qualifying pardon is issued by then, the market resolves to No.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice