Sep 8, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 19.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Poilievre out as Conservative leader by 2026: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets consider it unlikely that Pierre Poilievre will step down or be removed as Conservative leader before the deadline, pricing the chance at 12.0%.
12.0%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $159.0K
The ‘Poilievre out’ outcome bears the quoted probability; the alternative—that he stays in place—accounts for the remainder.
Context
Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 15.5% to 21.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
The market's assessment now rests at 12.0%, having fluctuated between 11.5% and 22.0% over its lifetime.. This market resolves to Yes if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any length of time between its creation and the cut-off point. An official announcement of a resignation or removal before that date is sufficient to trigger an immediate Yes resolution, regardless of when the change actually takes effect. If he remains in post throughout the entire window, the market settles at No. The resolution source is official information from Poilievre or the party, though a consensus of credible reporting can also be used. The probability is shaped by the countdown to the end date of Jan 1, 2027. Any public announcement of a departure would resolve the market, so the price can move on political developments, leadership speculation, or formal party processes. The reliance on official statements or agreed-upon reporting means that ambiguity or unconfirmed chatter alone would not settle the question.
FAQ
What triggers a Yes resolution?
The market resolves to Yes if Pierre Poilievre stops being Conservative Party leader at any point before the specified date, even temporarily. An official announcement of his departure is enough—once made public, the market resolves immediately.
What counts as ‘ceasing to be leader’?
Any formal loss of the leadership position, whether through resignation, removal by the party, or any other mechanism that results in him no longer holding that role. An announced departure that is set for a future date still triggers a Yes as soon as the announcement is made.
Who decides the outcome?
The market looks to official statements from Pierre Poilievre or the Conservative Party of Canada. If those are unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting can be used to determine the result.
What happens if there is only speculation or unconfirmed reports?
Rumors alone do not settle the market. Resolution requires either an official announcement or a consensus among credible news sources that the leadership has changed.
When does this market end?
The market covers the period through December 31, 2026. If no leadership change has occurred by then, it resolves to No.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice