Aug 24, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 14.0% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Prabowo Subianto Presidency: Odds of Early Departure
Markets give a 13.5% chance that Prabowo Subianto leaves office before Jul 1, 2027 — a unlikely. Trading volume reaches $125.8K.
13.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2027?
Updated · Volume $125.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2027? | 13.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? | 6.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline contract covering the period to mid‑2027 is the dominant focus; all other time horizons are priced as remote possibilities.
Context
Aug 23, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 13.0% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 15.0% to 22.0% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 15.0% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability fell from 25.0% to 19.0% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 6, 2026
Probability fell from 25.5% to 19.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 3, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 25.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 2, 2026
Probability fell from 22.0% to 19.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability rose from 16.0% to 25.5% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability fell from 25.5% to 16.0% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
The price implies a non‑trivial chance of an early exit, though the contract has not approached levels that would suggest an imminent departure. Settlement hinges on whether Prabowo Subianto ceases to hold the presidency for any interval before the contract expires. An announcement of resignation or removal before that deadline triggers an immediate “Yes,” irrespective of the effective date. Detention, permanent incapacitation, or any scenario that effectively prevents him from discharging his duties also lead to a “Yes” resolution. Official statements from the Indonesian government or Prabowo himself serve as the primary resolution source, though a consensus of credible reporting is sufficient if needed. The primary anchor for the probability is the expiry on Jul 1, 2027. Any credible signal of an early departure—such as a formal resignation announcement or reports of detention—would dramatically lift the odds. Barring such news, the contract would likely grind lower, approaching zero as the deadline nears without an event. The reference for settlement remains official word from Jakarta.
FAQ
What qualifies as Prabowo Subianto ceasing to be president?
Any scenario in which he stops holding the office for any period of time—including resignation, removal, detention, or being permanently prevented from performing his duties—qualifies for a “Yes” resolution.
Does a temporary absence from the role count?
Yes. The market resolves to “Yes” if he is not the sitting president for even a brief interval within the contract window.
What happens if a resignation is announced but takes effect after the expiry date?
An announcement of resignation or removal before the expiry triggers immediate resolution to “Yes,” regardless of when the actual departure occurs.
How is the outcome verified?
Official information from Prabowo Subianto or the Indonesian government is the primary source; a consensus of credible reporting can also be used.
When does this contract end?
The contract expires on Jul 1, 2027 unless settled earlier by a qualifying event.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice