Sep 22, 2026
Probability rose from 1.6% to 4.7% — a 3.1-point move over the past day.
Prince Andrew Sentenced to Prison? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets see a prison sentence for Prince Andrew as a long shot, pricing the chance at 4.0%. The market resolves to Yes if a court hands down any jail time by Jan 1, 2027.
4.0%-1.1 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $222.9K
The Yes outcome—a prison sentence—is the centered trading view at 4.0%, with all other scenarios (no charges, non-custodial resolution, or quashed proceedings) collectively making up the remainder.
Context
Sep 21, 2026
Probability rose from 1.6% to 3.1% — a 1.6-point move over the past day.
Sep 17, 2026
Probability rose from 1.1% to 4.3% — a 3.1-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 1.5% to 3.3% — a 1.8-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 1.5% to 3.4% — a 1.9-point move over the past day.
The probability has held at low levels, currently 4.0%. Total volume stands at $222.9K. A Yes resolution requires a court to sentence Prince Andrew to any term of imprisonment for criminal charges before the deadline. The length of the sentence does not matter, nor do subsequent appeals. Civil litigation, regulatory complaints, or accusations without formal criminal charges do not qualify. If all charges are dropped, or if proceedings conclude without a judgment—such as a plea deal with no admission of guilt—the market resolves to No. Trading is shaped by the binary nature of the market: either a custodial sentence occurs by Jan 1, 2027 or it does not. Any formal step in a criminal proceeding—an indictment, a trial date, a plea deal—could cause reassessment. The resolution will rely on official sources from law enforcement or the judiciary, or a consensus of credible reporting when official confirmation is unavailable.
FAQ
What qualifies as a prison sentence in this market?
Any sentence that includes time in jail or prison, even for a single day, counts. The sentence need not be served immediately; it need only be handed down by a court.
What if Prince Andrew is charged but never convicted?
The market requires a sentence. If charges are dismissed, or a trial ends in acquittal, the market resolves to No.
Do civil cases or out-of-court settlements count?
No. Only criminal charges resulting in a custodial sentence trigger a Yes resolution. Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, or private settlements have no bearing.
How is the outcome determined if official records are unclear?
The primary source is official information from the relevant government or law enforcement body. If that is unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice