Oct 15, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 19.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Pro Football: 2027 AFC Champion: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets see no dominant favorite in the 2027 AFC race, pricing the Baltimore Ravens' conference title chances at 15.5%. The Buffalo Bills follow at 14.5%, with six other teams above 7%.
19.5%-1.0 pts 24h
Will Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?
Updated · Volume $3.9M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | 19.5% | -1.0 |
| Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | 17.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | 14.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | 12.5% | 0.0 |
| Will New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | 8.5% | +1.0 |
| Will Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | 7.1% | +0.7 |
| Will Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | 7.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | 3.8% | +0.2 |
| Will Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | 2.1% | +0.4 |
| Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | 1.8% | -0.1 |
| Will Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | 1.1% | -0.1 |
| Will Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | 0.9% | -0.1 |
| Will Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Will New York Jets win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will another team win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The probability distribution is notably flat, with no team exceeding 16%. Thirteen teams hold at least a 2% chance, indicating a competitive field.
Context
Oct 15, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 18.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Oct 13, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 21.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Oct 6, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 17.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Oct 4, 2026
Probability fell from 22.5% to 18.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 27, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 15.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 21, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 22.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 20, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 18.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 18, 2026
Probability rose from 16.0% to 21.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
The market for the 2027 AFC Championship assigns a 15.5% chance to the Baltimore Ravens and 14.5% to the Buffalo Bills, with no other team above 11%. The distribution is notably flat at the top, leaving the Ravens and Bills as essentially co-favorites. A gap separates them from the Los Angeles Chargers at 11%, and then a cluster of teams between 7% and 9% adds to the uncertainty: the New England Patriots (9%), Kansas City Chiefs (9%), Houston Texans (7.7%), Denver Broncos (7.5%), and Cincinnati Bengals (7.1%). The Jacksonville Jaguars hold a 5.5% probability, and the Indianapolis Colts are at 3.5%. Next come the Las Vegas Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers, each at 2.4%, then the Cleveland Browns at 2.1%, the Miami Dolphins at 1.6%, the New York Jets at 1.5%, and the Tennessee Titans at 1.1%. In all, 13 of the 16 listed teams have at least a 2% chance. The “another team” contract is priced at 0%, indicating near-certainty that the champion will emerge from the listed pool. Total market volume stands at roughly $3.49 million. The individual probabilities add up to slightly more than 100%. The contract resolves to the winner of the 2027 AFC Championship game if one is determined by March 31, 2027 ET; otherwise, it resolves to “Other”.
FAQ
What are the current prediction market odds for the 2027 AFC Championship?
The Baltimore Ravens lead at 15.5%, followed by the Buffalo Bills (14.5%), Los Angeles Chargers (11%), New England Patriots (9%), and Kansas City Chiefs (9%). Several other teams have single-digit probabilities.
Why is no team given a high probability?
As of now, no team is priced above 15.5%, and 12 other teams have at least a 2% chance. The wide distribution suggests a balanced outlook without a dominant favorite.
How much money has been traded on this market?
Total market volume is approximately $3.49 million.
When will the 2027 AFC Champion be determined?
The winner is decided by the 2027 AFC Championship game, typically in late January 2027. If no winner is declared by March 31, 2027 ET, the market resolves to “Other”.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice