Aug 22, 2026
Probability rose from 93.5% to 96.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Rhode Island Governor Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give Democrats a 95.3% chance of holding the Rhode Island governor’s mansion in 2026, reflecting a near-certain position.
95.3%+0.1 pts 24h
Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?
Updated · Volume $69.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? | 95.3% | +0.1 |
| Will the Republicans win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? | 4.0% | -0.5 |
| Will an independent win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? | 1.1% | -0.2 |
| Will Option D win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option C win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option F win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option E win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option I win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option J win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Other win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option H win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option G win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option B win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
A Democratic victory is near-certain, while any other outcome remains unlikely.
Context
The market-implied probability for a Democratic win currently stands at 95.3%. It has ranged from 91.5% to 97.6% over the tracked period. The market resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If those three sources do not align, resolution falls to the official state certification. A candidate is considered to represent a party only if they are that party’s official nominee, and independents are not captured under the Democratic or Republican options regardless of any past affiliation. Formal resolution conditions are anchored by the election date Nov 3, 2026, when votes are cast and counted. After that point, any divergence among the three designated news organizations delays settlement until either consensus emerges or the certification becomes final. No other scheduled events or deadlines are specified in the market rules.
FAQ
How does this market resolve?
It resolves when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all declare the same candidate the winner of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election.
What happens if the three sources disagree?
If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official state certification of the election results.
Can an independent candidate win?
Yes, but an independent would not be covered by the Democratic or Republican outcome options; such candidates run under their own banner and may be added as separate outcomes at a later date.
What defines a party nominee?
A candidate is considered to represent a party if they are the official nominee of that party; past or informal affiliation does not override this rule.
When will the outcome be known?
The election occurs on Nov 3, 2026. Resolution follows once the three named sources reach consensus or the state certifies the result, whichever comes first.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice