Sep 14, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 62.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets see Luciano Zucco as the favored outcome to win the Rio Grande do Sul governor election, with a probability of 66.0%. The election takes place on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25 if no candidate wins an outright majority.
66.0%+3.5 pts 24h
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?
Updated · Volume $105.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? | 66.0% | +3.5 |
| Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? | 31.5% | -1.0 |
| Will Gabriel Souza win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? | 4.3% | -2.2 |
| Will Marcelo Maranata win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? | 0.5% | -0.0 |
| Will Luis Carlos Heinze win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Other win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Luciano Zucco is the clear market favorite, while Juliana Brizola attracts a substantial minority of traders; the remaining candidates are long shots.
Context
Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 44.0% to 56.5% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 30, 2026
Probability rose from 42.0% to 52.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability rose from 45.5% to 56.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 25, 2026
Probability fell from 57.5% to 45.5% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 23, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 56.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 61.0% to 59.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 25, 2026
Probability rose from 44.5% to 62.0% — a 17.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 44.5% to 57.5% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Luciano Zucco’s probability stands at 66.0%. It has ranged from 35.0% to 66.0%. The market resolves based on the winner of the election, as determined by credible reporting. Interim or temporary governors do not count. Should no result be available by June 30, 2027, the contract settles to 'Other'. In case of ambiguity, the official results from Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) serve as the final arbiter. The election calendar is the main driver. The first round is set for October 4, 2026, and a runoff, if needed, would follow on October 25, 2026. Until those dates pass or a winner is known, the probability will reflect the market’s assessment of each candidate’s chances.
FAQ
How does this market resolve?
It resolves to the candidate who officially wins the Rio Grande do Sul governor election, disregarding any interim appointees.
What if the election result is delayed or unclear?
If no winner is known by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to 'Other'.
What sources determine the winner?
Credible reporting first; if ambiguous, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) official results are used.
Do temporary or appointed governors count?
No. Only the winner of the scheduled election is considered.
When does the election take place?
The first round is October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25 if no candidate secures a majority.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice