Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 2.1% to 1.0% — a 1.1-point move over the past day.
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by 2026: Odds & Probability
The market on whether Rodrigo Paz would leave Bolivia's presidency by July 2026 ended with a No settlement. The Yes contract was priced at 34.4%, a substantial minority view.
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by October 31, 2026Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $57.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by October 31, 2026? | 34.4% | +4.2 |
| Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Yes side never gained traction, settling at 34.4% and leaving the No outcome as the resolution.
Context
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 1.2% to 3.5% — a 2.3-point move over the past day.
Traders consistently saw little chance of Rodrigo Paz leaving office before the deadline. Over the contract's lifespan, the probability for an early departure ranged from 7.0% to 42.5%. Volume totaled $57.0K. The event date, Nov 1, 2026, passed without any triggering event—no resignation, removal, or detention—and the market resolved No at expiry. Under the market's rules, a Yes resolution would have required Paz to cease being president for any period before that cutoff, with an announcement sufficient to trigger immediate settlement even if the change took effect later. Detention or permanent inability to perform duties would also have counted. The resolution relied on official Bolivian government sources or a consensus of credible reporting. No such developments occurred, so the No side prevailed.
FAQ
What does a Yes resolution require?
The market would resolve Yes if Rodrigo Paz ceased to be President of Bolivia at any point between the market's creation and 11:59 PM ET on Nov 1, 2026. An announcement of resignation or removal was enough, regardless of the effective date. Detention or permanent incapacitation also qualified.
How was the outcome determined?
The resolution source was official information from Rodrigo Paz and the Bolivian government, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting if necessary.
When did the market settle?
It settled after the deadline of Nov 1, 2026, once it was clear that no triggering event had occurred by that time.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice